The past two strange years haven’t been anomalies but indicators of how deeply leaders must come to terms with unpredictability. To solve complex problems amid uncertainty and ambiguity, we need new mindsets and methods.

In her talk at The Global Leadership Summit: Special Edition on February 24, 2022, Margaret Heffernan explored how to maximize collective intelligence and foster deep collaboration, both of which are critical elements leaders need to navigate an uncharted future.

Enjoy these official notes from Margaret Heffernan’s session on How to Navigate the Future.

Running a business is not what it used to be.

• • We used to think of management as a three-legged stool: forecast, plan, execute.
  • But one of the legs fell off the stool: the forecasting leg. We can’t seem to predict what’s going on.
  • Love is going to keep you going, but it’s not very good at forecasting.

The world has gone from complicated to complex.

• • Complicated things are linear, you can see them, control them. In that environment, efficiency is your friend.
  • Complexity is a different beast. In the middle of complexity, efficiency is not your friend.
  • Because there is so much more complexity in the world, about the longest out you can forecast is 400 days. If you don’t do all the work, the best you can hope for is 150 days.

Almost all businesses are a mixture of complicated and complex.

• • If you manage them all like they are complicated, you have no margin and no fall back.
  • If you manage them like they are complex, you will have a wildly expensive, over-engineered business.

What do you do when you don’t know what to do? You experiment. This is a mindset you need to bring to leadership now.

Lesson from Netherlands Home Nursing System

• • They changed job description for nurse to do what is best for the patient. As a result:
    • • Patients get better in half of the time.
      • Costs have gone down by 30%.
      • The key is the teams of 10 nurses that work together (16,000 nurses with a back office of 32 people).

Experimentation

• • Experimentation is what you want to do when you’re looking for growth and health.
  • Ideas are often solved by people working outside their area because they see things differently.

Collaboration

• • Collaboration is essential in complex environments.
  • Get people interacting around a central motivating factor. It requires that they focus on the core nature of the business itself.
  • Bonds between people build longevity.
  • Companies don’t have ideas, only people do.
  • What motivates people is people.
  • The ultimate sustainable resource is humanity.